The third round of group matches starts today, and so each day for the next four, we’ll know the final fates of two World Cup groups. We’ve been going through, group by group, and showing how each team can (or can’t) make it to the round of 16. This time, it’s the turn of Group F: Italy, New Zealand, Paraguay and Slovakia.
Remaining matches: Slovakia vs. Italy, Paraguay vs. New Zealand
Paraguay4 points from 2 matches, +2 goal difference
Wins the group with:
* A win over New Zealand (regardless of other results)
* A draw with New Zealand, combined with a Slovakia win over Italy
* A draw with New Zealand, combined with an Italy win that leaves Paraguay ahead of Italy on goal difference / tie-breakers.
Qualifies with above scenarios plus
* Any draw against New Zealand (regardless of other results)
* A loss to New Zealand, combined with an Italy-Slovakia draw
* A loss to New Zealand, combined with a Slovakia win that leaves Paraguay ahead of Slovakia on goal difference / tie-breakers.
Italy
2 points from 2 matches, 0 goal difference
Wins the group with:
* A win over Slovakia combined with a New Zealand win that leaves Italy ahead of New Zealand on goal difference / tie-breakers.
* A win over Slovakia combined with a Paraguay-New Zealand draw that leaves Italy ahead of Paraguay on goal difference / tie-breakers.
Qualifies with these scenarios plus:
* Any win over Slovakia (regardless of other results)
* A draw with Slovakia combined with a Paraguay win over New Zealand.
* A draw with Slovakia, combined with a Paraguay-New Zealand draw that leaves Italy ahead of New Zealand on goals scored (GD would be tied). If they draw by the same score, it could come down to the horror situation of drawing of lots.
New Zealand
2 points from 2 matches, 0 goal difference
Wins the group with:
* A win over Paraguay, combined with an Italy-Slovakia draw
* A win over Paraguay, combined with an Italy win that leaves New Zealand ahead of Italy on goal difference / tie-breakers. (Basically beating Paraguay by more goals than Italy beats Slovakia)
Qualifies with these scenarios plus:
* Any win over Paraguay (regardless of other result)
* A draw with Paraguay, combined with an Italy-Paraguay draw that leaves New Zealand ahead of Italy on goals scored (again, brings up the thought of drawing lots).
Slovakia1 point from 2 matches, -2 goal difference
Slovakia cannot win the group
Will qualify with:
* A win over Italy, combined with a Paraguay win or draw in the other match.
* A win over Italy, combined with a New Zealand win that leaves Slovakia ahead of Paraguay on goal difference / tie-breakers.
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